• 2020 Global Oil & Gas Predictions - How did we track?

2020 Global Oil & Gas Predictions - How did we track?

09 January 2020

The BDO Global Natural Resources Team underwent a process of looking back on our 2020 predictions to understand how we tracked and to unveil whether and why these predictions were either 'On track' or 'Off track'. Please see below for our comments.

By 2020, the average E&P company will make use of 10 percent of its big data—up significantly from today, but nowhere near full potential. On track – and faster than expected When it comes to the potential use of big data, the oil and gas industry has only just scratched the surface, but companies are catching on. Data-recording sensors in exploration, drilling and production operations, if used right, can reduce drilling time and improve safety, optimise production pumps, improve supply chain management and improve broader occupational safety, as the University of Regina outlines in a recent report on big data analytics for the industry.
By 2020, low oil prices—expected to remain at or below the $60 per barrel mark—will spur Gulf Cooperation Council countries to diversify their energy mix within the power sector using auctions to subsidise renewable energy projects. On track – as expected Variables like volatile oil prices and the need to address youth unemployment have pushed GCC countries to diversify their economies by focusing more on sectors like technology and renewable energy. For example, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan aims to reduce the country’s dependence on oil by privatising part of its national oil company, Aramco; expanding the resources and role of the Saudi Public Investment Fund; and further developing its ports and cultural attractions.
While overall spending on R&D may decline, most of the spending that does occur will go towards technologies that enhance exploration and production (E&P) efficiencies. On track – as expected As new global energy priorities continue to disrupt the traditional oil and gas model, companies must increasingly focus on driving cost efficiencies and enhanced recovery techniques to better protect their growth. In fact, the global market for advanced exploration and downhole technology is forecast to hit $233.4 billion in 2021, up from $175.8 billion in 2016 and reflecting a compound annual growth rate of nearly 6 percent, according to the Advanced Oil and Gas Exploration and Downhole Technologies: Global Markets to 2021 report from Research and Markets.
By 2020, at least five countries will see foreign hackers take all or part of their national energy grid offline through Permanent Denial of Service (PDoS) attacks. Off track – not much movement Not many attacks against specific countries’ energy grids have been publicly disclosed, though the number and level of sophistication of cyberattacks on national power grids have grown. But according to E&E News. on March 5, 2019, a U.S. utility company providing power to people in California, Utah and Wyoming fell victim to a “cyber event” that hampered operations just shy of causing a blackout. As hackers grow in sophistication and countries diversify their power sources, governments will have to remain hyper-vigilant to the growing threats facing their power systems.
By 2020, the growth of LNG imports and solar power will bring electricity to four in five African people. Off track – not much movement According to the World Bank, about half (53 percent) of Africans have access to electricity. Within sub-Saharan Africa specifically, that number drops to about two in five (43 percent), according to the Electricity Access in sub-Saharan Africa Report, released in March 2019. We expect this prediction to pick up speed as more African countries transition out of poverty and governments focus on supporting equitable distribution of wealth resulting from oil and gas production.

To see how Australia, US, UK, Canada and Saudi Arabia tracked - please click here for the full report.